Trades going into 02/03/2009

Hi Folks, well today was another choppy day that we had on are hands. The nasdaq has been getting my attention because it has been staying strong versus the other indexes. One of my trades that I was looking at was to go short the QQQQ and also the SMH. They both are currently in a symetrical triangle that very much can break strong to the upside if unemployment is not bad as expect, same with the QQQQ. Being that unemployment can be used as a measure of growth and the tech sector is a major growth industry they will be affected on the numbers expected to be released on Friday. If the numbers are bad look for a sell off in these two and if they are better than expected than look for a run up. On the chart below I have posted a chart of the SMH, which closely similiar to the QQQQ. I have put annotations on the chart with consideration more bearish and a possible Head & Shoulders pattern. If this does not pan out and we get a breakout of the long side out the triangle I would go long and expect for alot of SEMIS and TECHS to run. Careful though and wait for confirmation for the semis did close strong today and good be forming the V before a possible break of the Head & Shoulders.


SMH Chart Posted Below

"This will be much easier once I start the Videos"

Okay now to the indexes we basically got a bounce off of Fridays Lows. The volume was not that impressing so don't get too much on with the media hype. The indexes have broken below their triangles with the spy leading the way. I believe this week is going to be bad and that unemployment is going to do its toll. Some plays that I'm looking at starting this week that is a play with the unemployment report are these two educational stocks. ESI and CECO. ESI came up on my proprietary scan and broke out today near the End Of Day. I posted this right before it happend on my thread at http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64170 . Click their and go to last page. I also post relevant info here throughout the day as well. CECO and ESI made some nice size moves up and should continue througout the week. All charts look pretty good on all time frames. When I get the videos I can go over the charts, but if I was to start on all the charts I would be here all night for that is my specialty chart analysis.

* PLEASE TAKE PROFIT ON THE PLAYS IF THEY ARE PROFITABLE FOR YOU OR ATLEAST PROTECT THEM WITH STOPS & PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DD AS FAR AS EARNINGS REPORTS ECT....*

* How to Play them

• CECO- Long the Feb 25x calls ( In at $ .56)



• ESI- Long Feb 130x ( In at $4.90)

Next on the plate for a play this week is oil. I am turning bearish on oil however everywhere you turn everybody is saying it's to late to short oil. I believe oil still has alittle bit more downside and that it could possibly test those levels this week on inventory report numbers and unemployment numbers. I think the market may take it up on a suprise on wensday then possibly slam it down on Fridays Unemployment numbers.


Posted below is the USO chart which looks to have increased selling pressure and is in the process of completing a descending triangle. Next major support on USO ( not shown because daily chart) is at $25. Being bearish on oil Is risky for it can turn on any news that is released. So Watch the key level break at $27.73. Wait for confirmation and do not rush to play it becaue when it breaks and confirms thats when all the traders will put on their trade and push prices lower. So just monitor the USO and trade it to the downside if the trade permits itself.


USO Chart

*How to play it

• SCO Feb 35 calls( careful for this gapped up 52% today ) or long the stock on a break of $37.86, which is the top band of the triangle forming.


• USO FEB 27x puts ( Buy on break above $1.50 ) or short stock

Last but not least, GMCR coffee stock that has been bucking the trend of the market. Came up on my proprietary scan and also had some interesting options action. Coffee was the second commodity that closed up last month right behind silver. Also looks like big boys are long this stock and short starbucks because they are trending lower.

GMCR Chart

*How to Play it

• Long March 45x calls or long the stock on a break above $42

Okay folks long blog insert, but alot of relevant information. Videos will come soon. Also I still believe gold is still in play and will correct this pullback possibly by the end of the week when unemployment comes in and the dollar weakens. They were saying on the news that the drop today was from the april contract rollover, so we will see. Still long the AUY Feb 7x Calls that i got at .21. Good day and good trading tommorow.